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fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets

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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (2007-03-29)
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Neu: ab EUR 6,39(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 4,63

Autor/Autoren: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Herausgeber: Penguin
Taschenbuch

Stichworte: [Economics] [Anlage (finanziell) - Geldanlage] [Englische Bücher] [Finanzmarkt] [Geldanlage ( Anlage (finanziell) )] [Geldmarkt] [Kapitalanlage] [Markt] [Wirtschaft, Business] [Wirtschaft] [Wirtschaftsratgeber] [Börse; Berichte/Erinnerungen] [Erfolg (Wirtschaft)] [Wirtschaftspsychologie] [Zufall]

Kundenmeinungen:
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): A great and important book!
This book is one of the most important books ever written! Although it may seem far fetched I think that this is true for several reasons. One of the most important reasons is its main point : We all being fooled by randomness. This is especially true for areas of our lifes that we normally would not expect randomness to manifest itself in. It is a deeply inspiring book and has the ability to change the way the reader percepts the world around him, or the things that happen around him. Having read his sescond book "Black Swan" I must say that I find "Fooled by Randomness" a far better read. It is concise and written in beautiful English. I just makes the point very clear and this is by no means easy if one looks at the topic. This is one of the books that had to be written and is a must read for every "thinking man" out there.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Managing Unpredictable Variations in Order to Prosper!
Every person who is interested in investing should read this book! In investing, few can tell the difference between being lucky and smart. Being successful in the short term can come from either source. If it is coming from unrecognized sources of luck, however, the behavior that the investor associates with success can sink the ship. The cautionary tale of Long Term Capital Management is cited in the book as an example of this point. "If you\'re so rich, why aren\'t you smart?" is the wonderful reversal here on the old saw. I see this effect all the time in my consulting practice with helping companies understand how their decisions affect their stock price. A large percentage of people feel that they know all the answers when their stock price is rising. They keep doing the same things when the stocks are falling. Few survive to still have top jobs when the cycle shifts again. Then a new group of self-confident people take over who often don\'t know any more than those who preceded them. It\'s just that their track records look better. Fooled by Randomness will help make you more knowledgeably humble about what you can expect to accomplish with investments. Not only do fewer than one percent outperform the market averages over long time periods, the ones who do are probably often being aided by luck as well. "Get thee to the index funds as soon as possible" is the message that most should take away from this book. Better yet, buy them when multiples are low! The book\'s fundamental point is that there is tremendous volatility in any investment. Ignore that volatility to your peril. At the same time, you should be cautious about how well you understand the volatility. Stocks at their lows can still go to zero. There are all kinds of events that can happen, that have not done so yet. When they do, throw out all the old rules of investing. The terrorist attacks on the United States last week are probably an example of this. So each investment must be made as though you could be totally wrong. This means that you have to manage your risk exposure to events you don\'t even know how to expect. I loved his example of the joint probabilities of having a rare disease if you get a positive result on a test for that disease. Even most doctors apparently don\'t know how to evaluate that one. If even well educated people cannot quantify two known risks occurring simultaneously in their own field, how can investors be expected to make good decisions? Dr. Taleb has some very good advice for how to handle the psychology of being able to do this. He upholds the Stoic ideal -- "the attempt by man to get even with probability" which encourages "wisdom, upright dealing, and courage." This means not chasing the latest investment fad or fashion, not looking at your investments very often, and being open to both sides of any idea (it could go wrong as well as right -- what are the consequences of both?). I especially liked his idea of watching CNBC with the sound off so that the "experts" seem humorous and you are less likely to hear and follow their advice. Even more poignant was his advice not to live on Park Avenue where living with all of the arrogant, temporarily lucky can make you feel small. Instead, live somewhere that the results of your cautious approach will cause you to be the envy of all. Dr. Taleb impressed me with his willingness to tell stories on himself about how quickly he can become superstitious when things are going well, take on excess risks, and start looking too short term. After all, we are only human! The importance of this book can only be appreciated if you go back and think about your biggest investing successes. How much was luck versus skill? A good way to test is to see if the same approach has continued to work for you whenever you use it. Another good test is to see how often it would have backfired in the past. In my research on good decision making, I find that those who guard the downside first make the most money in the long run. They are able to find ways to get the best of both worlds! Remember that the two-edged sword can cut in either direction!

the back of the napkin: solving problems and selling ideas with pictures

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The Back of the Napkin: Solving Problems and Selling Ideas with Pictures (2008-09-03)
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Neu: ab EUR 12,53(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 16,95

Autor/Autoren: Dan Roam
Herausgeber: Penguin Usa
Gebundene Ausgabe

Stichworte: [Decision Making & Problem Solving] [Economics - General] [Business] [Englische Bücher] [Wirtschaft, Business] [Communication In Business] [Management +] [Business & Economics] [Business / Economics / Finance] [Business/Economics] [Management] [Wirtschaft] [Business & Economics / Decision-Making & Problem Solving] [Business & Management] [Business communication & presentation] [Economics] [Management & Business: General] [Management & management techniques] [Management and Business Administration] [Visualization] [Bild] [Kommunikation] [Kreativität] [Problemlösung] [Visualisierung] [Business Communication - General] [Audio-visual aids] [Problem solving]

Kundenmeinungen:
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Super Visualisierungsideen
Dan Roam hat mir die Angst vor dem selber zeichnen genommen. Sehr einfach und leicht verständlich zeigt er mir Schritt für Schritt, wie ich mit kleinen, selbst gemachten Zeichnungen Probleme löse und Ideen verkaufe. Sehr hilfreich, wenn man mit Visual Aids Leuten zusammenarbeitet. Einfach Idee hinkritzeln, malen, zeichnen, und die Profis setzen es um. Eine großartige Fundgrube für Visualisierungsideen.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): gute Methodik, gute Diadaktik, tolles Buch
Der Buchtitel ist auf den ersten Blick etwas irreführend, da es hier nicht darum geht, wie man zum Zeichner oder Karikaturisten wird. Es geht viel mehr darum, wie man komplexe Business Graphiken so zeichnet/layouted, dass sie das Wesentliche rüberbringen. Es gibt eine leicht verständliche Erklärung, was ein gutes Bild ausmacht (z.B. Orientierung, erkennen von bekantnen Begrifflichkeiten usw.) und wie man die Themen "wer", "was", "wann", "wie", warum" und "wo" ganz einfach darstellen kann. Und es wird erklärt, wie man komplexe Bilder so reduziert, dass sie managementtauglich werden. In dem Buch sind ca. 100 Graphiken enthalten, die in ihrer Einfachheit gleichermassen verblüffend wie bizarr sind, so dass ich mich gelegentlich frage, warum ich eigentlich immer so viel Aufwand in meine komplizierten Powerpoints gesteckt habe. Weniger ist mehr. Ein wirklich gelungenes Werk - motiviert zum Selbermachen !
++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): A Solid Introduction to Illustrating Problems and Solutions
If you don\'t have any idea of how pictures can help you see more dimensions of problems and explain your solutions better, this is a good book to get you started. The book\'s main drawback is that it doesn\'t discuss how to integrate stories with pictures to make for more compelling communications. You\'ll have to learn to do that by reading books about storytelling to supplement this one. I consider myself to be not very good at creating pictures for either solving problems or communicating solutions. I was disappointed that the book wasn\'t aimed more at helping people like me who understand the principles but have trouble applying those concepts.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Complexity and Pictures
Don`t be fooled by the title. This is a serious book aubout making complex things understandable by making it visible. It`s amazing how powerful one picture can encapsulate an array of complex and seemingly unrelated topics. Read this book and enjoy !
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Storytelling mit Bildern
Dan Roam zeigt nicht nur, wie man bildgestützt denkt, sondern auch, wie man mit dem von Ihm hergeleiteten Framework die Inhalte weitererzählen kann. Interessanterweise wird dieses "Schweizermesser" des visuellen Denkens auch nicht langweilig, wenn man es das zweite Mal zur Hand nimmt und das liegt nicht nur an den liebevollen Illustrationen.

outliers: the story of success

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Outliers: The Story of Success (2008-11-18)
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Neu: ab EUR 11,73(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 7,90

Autor/Autoren: Malcolm Gladwell
Herausgeber: Penguin Books Frankfurt
Taschenbuch

Stichworte: [Management] [Wirtschaft] [Sachbuch] [Erfolg] [Englische Bücher] [Entscheidung (betriebswirtschaftlich)] [Wirtschaft, Business]

Kundenmeinungen:
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Erfolg: Harte Arbeit oder glückliche Umstände?
Ein sehr lesbares Popularwissenschaftliches Buch über Erfolg. Outliers, in statistics, are results that are so extreme that they are generally not taken into account in calculations. So extreme that they are literally off the charts. Malcolm Gladwell\'s book Outliers: The Story of Success is about people that experience this kind of extreme success. People like the most succesful hockey and soccer players. People like Bill Gates. Or the Beatles. What is it that makes people so succesful? First, it is hard work. To become an expert in a field, one needs at least about 10,000 hours of labor. Like an Asian farmer toiling away on his rice paddy field. The proverbial 99% transpiration that comes with the 1% inspiration. Second, it is lucky circumstances. Sheer luck. Like being born at the beginning of the year instead of at the end (which makes a surprisingly significant difference in your chances of becoming a top hockey player). Or the country you\'re from. Or the language you\'ve been raised in (English gives you an early math disadvantage of about a year compared to Chinese or Japanese). In his previous bestseller The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference, Gladwell shows that small initial differences can make for a huge end effect on a society. Also his Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking was about conclusions we all draw from small differences in quick thought processes. In the same way, this book shows how sometimes incredibly small differences can tip somebody towards extreme success. Small differences also made for the success of Malcolm Gladwell himself. One of the most precious gifts he allegedly got from his father is the memory of "seeing him work at his desk and realizing that he was happy". The same joyous work ethic oozes from the pages of this book. Gladwell reads like a detective. He brings you science like a professional storyteller. The science, on the other hand, sometimes suffers a bit from this high readability (some conclusions about cultural causes are quite debatable). There are no footnotes in this book, but in the back of the publication, each chapter does have a number of notes to back up some of his claims. This book is definitely an entertaining read. It is also a good way to weapon yourself against the abundance of success stories that sound a tad too good to be a full version of the truth.

freakonomics: a rogue economist explores the hidden side of everything

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Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (2006-11-01)
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Neu: ab EUR 4,00(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 3,07

Autor/Autoren: Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner
Herausgeber: Harper Collins, New York
Broschiert

Stichworte: [Allgemeines, Lexika, Geschichte] [Wirtschaft] [Allgemeines, Einführung, Lexikon] [Economics - Theory] [Englische Bücher] [Wirtschaft, Business]

Kundenmeinungen:
++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Etwas andere Einblicke in die Wirtschaftswissenschaft
Hinter Freakonomics verbergen sich verschiedene Geschichten aus der US-Wirtschaftswissenschaft, die aus verschiedenen Daten ausgelesen wurden. Zum Teil wirken diese doch sehr "amerikanisch" - so wird das Wirtschaftssystem einer Gang beleuchtet. Und das Ergebnis ist, dass normale, einfache Straßengangster weniger Geld als ein einfacher Arbeiter verdienen und deswegen noch zu Hause wohnen. Fazit: Mäßig unterhaltsam.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Statistik mal anders: kurzweilig und spassig!
Dieses Buch ist ein Sammelsurium aus verschiedenen kurzen Geschichten, in denen Statistik angewendet wurde, um ungewöhnliche Sachverhalte oder Zusammenhänge aufzudecken, bspw. unter welchen externen Umständen Angestellte sich ehrlicher beim Kauf von Bagels ohne Kontrolle verhalten. Diese sind in einem locker-flockigen Stil geschrieben, der auf Leser ohne tiefer gehende Statistikkenntnisse ausgerichtet ist, und bietet stundenlange kurzweilige Unterhaltung bei der man auch etwas über die konzeptionelle Herangehensweise bei der Suche nach "Wahrheiten" lernen kann. Levitt untersucht verschiedene "natürlich Experimente", also solche Vorkommnisse, die nicht wirklich als Experiment konzipiert sind, jedoch aufgrund der Gegebenheiten genau diesen Charakter aufweisen, beispielsweise ob der besagte Bagelverkäufer seine Waren nun in Büros des Top-Managements oder einfacher Büroangestellter ausstellt. Das interessante daran sind die ungewöhnlichen Beispiele, die hierbei herangezogen werden, beispielsweise unter welchen Umständen Sumo-Ringer Kampfabsprachen treffen oder wie die Einkommensstruktur einer Drogengang aussieht, und die unorthodoxe Denkweise mit welcher Levitt diese untersucht. Natürlich reicht die Lektüre des Buches mitnichten aus, um selbsttätig anspruchsvolle Statistiken zu erstellen, die Neugier daran wird jedoch geweckt und im Endeffekt steht ja auch die Unterhaltung im Mittelpunkt, sonst könnte man ja auch gleich ein "echtes" Statistikbuch lesen. Die Lektüre lohnt schon allein wegen der ungewöhnlichen Geschichten, die von Levitt vorgetragen werden. Insgesamt ein sehr unterhaltsames Buch, das Statistik sexy aussehen lässt!
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Multiple-Regression Statistical Analysis Put on an Easy-to-Understand Pedestal
Ask most people if they want to understand statistics . . . and they run in the opposite direction. That\'s too bad because these days anyone who can run a personal computer can perform sophisticated statistical analysis using relatively affordable software like SPSS. Freakonomics may open a few minds by showing that much of what the conventional wisdom is . . . is wrong. Economics has been traditionally focused on writing equations to explain "how things should work" assuming that nothing else changes. That\'s the rub. Everything else does change . . . and the theories don\'t work in practice. You\'ve all heard the resulting economist jokes. Steven Levitt does something that academics don\'t like anyone to do: He looks for interesting, practical questions and devises simple, straightforward solutions. His method is usually pretty simple. He looks for patterns by using regression programs and then thinks about what the regressions might mean. That often leads to a trip to some other data, and eventually the correct cause-and-effect pattern emerges. It\'s like the invention methods of champion tinkerer Thomas A. Edison. Keep trying until something practical works. Fortunately, with today\'s computers you don\'t have to wait very long. The biggest challenges are in finding the right data sets, as this book shows through its example of why drug dealers usually live with their mothers. The book indicts the media and many so-called experts who simply haven\'t done their homework. As a result, you can spend a lot of time being misinformed by reading the latest Congressional testimony, the latest think-tank study or by watching a talking head debate on television. The lesson: Be skeptical unless you see the data and the analyses, as they are displayed in this book\'s few examples. In the book, you will find out how statistics can identify some of those who cheat (whether they are teachers or sumo wrestlers) and how economic incentives slant behavior (how real estate brokers sell their own property versus selling yours). You will encounter a novel argument that Roe v. Wade has reduced the violent crime rate. You\'ll find an even more interesting argument about how to equate the value of reduced crime to the cost of abortions. More favorably, there are case studies on how accurate information trumps bad or misleading information to the benefit of us all. The book ends up on a largely unsatisfying statistical look at nature versus nurture . . . and pretty much dismisses nurture when it comes to child-raising. So it\'s a grab bag of topics, mixed with lots of hero worship (by co-author Stephen J. Dubner for co-author Steven D. Levitt). Why is this book selling so well? I couldn\'t figure it out. It doesn\'t have the elegance and relevance of The Tipping Point. It\'s about statistics, and hardly anyone wants to read about that. So I asked my wife and younger daughter. They both knew the book was a best seller (obviously it has good media play). They both loved the cover . . . especially the illustration of an apple that when you cut into it reveals an orange. They also liked the title (both finding economics pretty freaky). I nominate whoever came up with that cover concept and title for the best "you can\'t tell a book by its cover" award for 2005. So what does Freakonomics have to do with apples and oranges? As best I can tell, Freakonomics has very little to do with those fruits in a literal sense. The metaphor seems to be intended to be applied in two ways: First, you have to compare apples and oranges to the right reference to understand what you are examining; and second, sometimes the cause of something comes from an unexpected source when we peel back the skin of surface reality. If you want more, I discuss some applications of the book in my blog posting for today. If you already like and know statistics, you can read Professor Levitt\'s articles instead of this book. If you like "gee whiz" facts about things you don\'t know much about, this book is for you.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): astonishing answers to unusual questions
The Introduction of this book is called: "The Hidden Side of Everything". And this is the programme of the book. Steven D. Levitt, a famous economist, gives unusual answers to seemingly bizarre questions: "What Do Schoolteachers and Sumo Wrestlers Have in Common?" "How is the Ku Klux Klan Like a Group of Real-Estate Agents?" Or: "Why Do Drug Dealers Still Live with Their Moms" (in spite of their apparently high income)? Together with the journalist Stephen J. Dubner whom he got to know through his columns for the New York Times Magazine, he gathers all these strange answers in a book. In fact it is a highly interesting book that might interest every reader who is not satisfied with the first solution for a problem. That means a reader who is keen to find "The Hidden Side of Everything". So it is not a typical book for economists. For example, the author pretends that the enormous drop in the American crime rate is not a result of modern police strategies but of the legalisation of abortion in 1973 by the U.S. Supreme Court. As a consequence, unwanted children with a higher risk to become a criminal, were not born anymore. A thesis hard to accept but convincingly proved by the author. Furthermore, the reader learns how the Crack Mafia in the States is organised (as a highly profitable company) or how he can guess the mother\'s income and the colour of her skin by knowing her child\'s name. But why does the author pretend, although all scientific studies say the opposite, that long prison terms and the capital punishment have got a deterrent effect on future criminals? Even if he does not affirm that a great decline in crimes is a result of capital punishment, he does not point out its negative aspects resolutely enough. All in all, you will have a very interesting book in your hands that incites you either to laugh or to reflect. Very often you will only be perplexed: Is it really possible that ...?
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Multiple-Regression Statistical Analysis Put on an Easy-to-Understand Pedestal
Ask most people if they want to understand statistics . . . and they run in the opposite direction. That\'s too bad because these days anyone who can run a personal computer can perform sophisticated statistical analysis using relatively affordable software like SPSS. Freakonomics may open a few minds by showing that much of what the conventional wisdom is . . . is wrong. Economics has been traditionally focused on writing equations to explain "how things should work" assuming that nothing else changes. That\'s the rub. Everything else does change . . . and the theories don\'t work in practice. You\'ve all heard the resulting economist jokes. Steven Levitt does something that academics don\'t like anyone to do: He looks for interesting, practical questions and devises simple, straightforward solutions. His method is usually pretty simple. He looks for patterns by using regression programs and then thinks about what the regressions might mean. That often leads to a trip to some other data, and eventually the correct cause-and-effect pattern emerges. It\'s like the invention methods of champion tinkerer Thomas A. Edison. Keep trying until something practical works. Fortunately, with today\'s computers you don\'t have to wait very long. The biggest challenges are in finding the right data sets, as this book shows through its example of why drug dealers usually live with their mothers. The book indicts the media and many so-called experts who simply haven\'t done their homework. As a result, you can spend a lot of time being misinformed by reading the latest Congressional testimony, the latest think-tank study or by watching a talking head debate on television. The lesson: Be skeptical unless you see the data and the analyses, as they are displayed in this book\'s few examples. In the book, you will find out how statistics can identify some of those who cheat (whether they are teachers or sumo wrestlers) and how economic incentives slant behavior (how real estate brokers sell their own property versus selling yours). You will encounter a novel argument that Roe v. Wade has reduced the violent crime rate. You\'ll find an even more interesting argument about how to equate the value of reduced crime to the cost of abortions. More favorably, there are case studies on how accurate information trumps bad or misleading information to the benefit of us all. The book ends up on a largely unsatisfying statistical look at nature versus nurture . . . and pretty much dismisses nurture when it comes to child-raising. So it\'s a grab bag of topics, mixed with lots of hero worship (by co-author Stephen J. Dubner for co-author Steven D. Levitt). Why is this book selling so well? I couldn\'t figure it out. It doesn\'t have the elegance and relevance of The Tipping Point. It\'s about statistics, and hardly anyone wants to read about that. So I asked my wife and younger daughter. They both knew the book was a best seller (obviously it has good media play). They both loved the cover . . . especially the illustration of an apple that when you cut into it reveals an orange. They also liked the title (both finding economics pretty freaky). I nominate whoever came up with that cover concept and title for the best "you can\'t tell a book by its cover" award for 2005. So what does Freakonomics have to do with apples and oranges? As best I can tell, Freakonomics has very little to do with those fruits in a literal sense. The metaphor seems to be intended to be applied in two ways: First, you have to compare apples and oranges to the right reference to understand what you are examining; and second, sometimes the cause of something comes from an unexpected source when we peel back the skin of surface reality. If you want more, I discuss some applications of the book in my blog posting for today. If you already like and know statistics, you can read Professor Levitt\'s articles instead of this book. If you like "gee whiz" facts about things you don\'t know much about, this book is for you.

the great crash: 1929

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The Great Crash: 1929 (1997-04-30)
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Neu: ab EUR 6,05(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 5,06

Herausgeber: Mariner Books
Taschenbuch

Stichworte: [American history: from c 1900 -] [Economic History] [Inter-war period, 1918-1939] [Economics - Microeconomics] [History - U.S.] [Depression] [United States - 20th Century] [Economic History - 20th Century] [U.S. History - Depression And New Deal (1929-1938)] [Business & Economics] [Business/Economics] [Allgemeines, Lexika, Geschichte] [Wirtschaft] [United States - 20th Century/Depression] [Economics] [USA] [1929] [Depressions] [Stock Market Crash, 1929] [United States] [Economics: Professional & General]

Rampant speculation. Record trading volumes. Assets bought not because of their value but because the buyer believes he can sell them for more in a day or two, or an hour or two. Welcome to the late 1920s in the US. There are obvious and absolute parallels to the great bull market of the late 1990s, writes Galbraith in a new introduction dated 1997. Of course, Galbraith notes, every financial bubble since 1929 has been compared to the Great Crash, which is why this book has never been out of print since it became a bestseller in 1955. Galbraith writes with great wit and erudition about the perilous actions of investors and the curious inaction of the government. He notes that the problem wasn't a scarcity of securities to buy and sell: "The ingenuity and zeal with which companies were devised in which securities might be sold was as remarkable as anything." Those words become strikingly relevant in light of revenue-negative start-up companies coming into the market each week in the 1990s, along with fragmented pieces of established companies, like real estate and bottling plants. Of course, the 1920s were different from the 1990s. There was no safety net below citizens, no unemployment insurance or Social Security. And today we don't have the creepy investment trusts--in which shares of companies that held some stocks and bonds were sold for several times the assets' market value. But, boy, are the similarities spooky, particularly the prevailing trend at the time toward corporate mergers and industry consolidations--not to mention all the partially informed people who imagined themselves to be financial geniuses because the shares of stock they bought kept going up. --Lou Schuler, Amazon.com Amazon.co.uk
Rampant speculation. Record trading volumes. Assets bought not because of their value but because the buyer believes he can sell them for more in a day or two, or an hour or two. Welcome to the late 1920s. There are obvious and absolute parallels to the great bull market of the late 1990s, writes Galbraith in a new introduction dated 1997. Of course, Galbraith notes, every financial bubble since 1929 has been compared to the Great Crash, which is why this book has never been out of print since it became a bestseller in 1955. Galbraith writes with great wit and erudition about the perilous actions of investors, and the curious inaction of the government. He notes that the problem wasn't a scarcity of securities to buy and sell; "the ingenuity and zeal with which companies were devised in which securities might be sold was as remarkable as anything." Those words become strikingly relevant in light of revenue-negative start-up companies coming into the market each week in the 1990s, along with fragmented pieces of established companies, like real estate and bottling plants. Of course, the 1920s were different from the 1990s. There was no safety net below citizens, no unemployment insurance or Social Security. And today we don't have the creepy investment trusts--in which shares of companies that held some stocks and bonds were sold for several times the assets' market value. But, boy, are the similarities spooky, particularly the prevailing trend at the time toward corporate mergers and industry consolidations--not to mention all the partially informed people who imagined themselves to be financial geniuses because the shares of stock they bought kept going up. --Lou Schuler Amazon.com

Kundenmeinungen:
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): a very good book
Galbraith is one of my all-time favorite authors. It\'s not only his very elegant prose (before reading Galbraith, I didn\'t know that books about economics can be fun and even hilarious.) Galbraith, himself a Harvard Professor, is able to explain economic problems and elucidate technical dicussions - perhaps "to teach about economics" would be a more suitable expression - even to non-economists like me. This book dwells on the subject of speculation and the economic crisis it caused in 1929. Needless to say, the topic of speculation and economic crises recurrently becomes important (e.g. the 1987 crash, the 1997 Asian crisis, the 2008-2009 crisis). This book is closely related to the same author\'s "A Short History of Financial Euphoria". But whereas the former deals specifically with the 1929 crisis, the latter is a rather brief study of speculation in general. On the one hand, if you want an introduction to the subject, "A Short History of Financial Euphoria" might be the best choice, but if you want an in depth analysis, go for "The Great Crash 1929"; on the other hand, these are complimentary books so reading both is also a good idea. Yet if have to chose between both books, I would recommend "The Great Crash 1929".
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): What Actually Happened in 1929?
Having lived through the crash of the dot-com stocks, I thought it was particularly appropriate to reread John Kenneth Galbraith\'s famous history of the stock market crash of 1929 in the United States. Professor Galbraith\'s final words prove to be prophetic as he suggests that as soon as the lessons of 1929 are forgotten, the speculative excesses that led to that debacle will recur. I am sure that when the dot-bomb experience is forgotten, it will be repeated with some new class of speculation in some future generation. With the recent experience of seeing a market mania, I came away more impressed with this book than before. Professor Galbraith does a fine job of capturing the psychology that builds into and sustains a mania. He also writes like a novelist rather than like an economist. That talent makes the message easy to grasp and appreciate. I was also impressed by how our popular perceptions of 1929 are so often wrong. For example, most people believe that many "broken" speculators committed suicide. Although some did, there was no significant rise in the suicide rate compared to a general trend in that direction. Economists often like to fault the Federal Reserve for the crash. That blame seems somewhat misplaced when you learn that there was very little government debt that the Fed could repurchase to create liquidity. Had the Fed acted differently, the crash might have come a little sooner and not been quite so severe . . . but the fundamentals would probably not have changed too much. Another misperception is that everyone was speculating. By even the most generous measures, the speculators probably never numbered over a million people. Although this is a history, Professor Galbraith takes on the economic question of how the crash contributed to the Depression. Although we know very little about the economic details of 1929, I was impressed by the point about how much consumer spending was concentrated in the wealthiest people. As they lost vast sums, both spending for consumer goods and savings for capital were decimated. With the broader income distribution of today, such a cataclysm would not be so harmful (as we saw in the aftermath of the dot-com crash). There is an excellent parallel discussion of the land boom in Florida earlier in the 1920\'s that is very rewarding. I was intrigued by the ways that ever increasing ways of extending leverage were created so that both bubbles could climb higher. In Florida, people didn\'t actually buy the land. They bought options to buy the land, and traded those. In the stock market, holding companies sold stock and then floated new holding companies. These were capitalized with common stock, preferred and debt so that all of the appreciation would accrue to the common holders. Naturally, the opposite occurred on the way down. Many stocks fell by over 99 percent, as a result. Everyone who is tempted to buy any item primarily because it is thought to represent an opportunity for a quick buck should read this book. Look for true value in all that you do!
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): 5-star book, read the review below
You want to know how irrational and unpredictable the stock market can be? Read this book. Written in easy-to-read language, it is digested almost as easily as a mystery novel, and yet provides a deep insight into the dramatic events of 1929, and gives an invaluable historic lesson. You can clearly see the parallels between events preceding market collapse in 1929 and today high-tech stock market boom - "...there is here a basic and recurrent process. It comes with rising prices, whether of stocks, real estate, works of art or anything else. This increase attracts attention and buyers, which produces the further effect of even higher prices. Expectations are thus justified by the very action that sends prices up. The process continues; optimism with its market effect is the order of the day. Prices go up even more. Then, for reasons that will endlessly be debated, comes the end. The descent is always more sudden than the increase; a balloon that has been punctured does not deflate in an orderly way." Book goes on to describe the inaction of the Federal Reserve, trade on margin, mergers, Florida real estate boom, investment trusts, leverage, short selling, and so on. Yet, you do not need to be a financial whiz to understand it. This is definitely a 5-star book.

influence

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Influence (2008-11-27)
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Neu: ab EUR 18,95(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 16,03

Autor/Autoren: Mary-Kate Olsen, Ashley Olsen
Herausgeber: Penguin Books Ltd (UK)
Gebundene Ausgabe

Stichworte: [Fashion & beauty industries] [Clothing & Dress] [Girls & Women] [Juvenile Nonfiction] [Children's Books/Young Adult Misc. Nonfiction] [Children: Young Adult (Gr. 7-9)] [Einzelne Wirtschaftszweige] [Wirtschaft] [Juvenile Nonfiction / Clothing & Dress] [Art - Fashion] [Biography & Autobiography - Women] [Photography] [1986-] [Fashion design] [Juvenile literature] [Olsen, Mary-Kate,] [Industrial Studies: General]

Kundenmeinungen:
++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Hatte weitaus mehr erwartet....
Hatte mich wahnsinnig auf dieses Buch gefreut und wurde dann bitter enttäuscht. Es sind hauptsächlich von den Zwillingen geführte Interviews mit verschiedenen Künstlern drin und ein Paar Bilder. Nur ganz ganz wenige Fotos von MK und A Olsen selbst. Wäre schön gewesen wenn man etwas mehr über sie erfahren hätte und einblicke bekäme. Naja, gleich mal zurückgeschickt.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): influence
ich bin ein Riesengroßer fan von mary-kate und ashley olsen ich kann zwar nicht ganz so gut english habe mir das buch aber trotzdem bestellt. (Das meiste verstehe ich aber) Ich finde dieses buch ist sehr gut gelungen. und ich bin der meinung das es halt eher für leute ist die auch an mode interessiert sind. Für mich hat es sich gelont es zu bestellen weil ich die mary-kate und ashley mag und mich auch für mode interessiere.
++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Absolut empfehlenswert!
Ich hab dieses Buch eigentlich mit der Erwartung bestellt, wieder ein bisschen enttäuscht zu werden, wie es mir schon oft mit Produkten von Mary-Kate & Ashley ergangen ist, obwohl ich sagen muss, dass ich ein eingefleischter Fan bin. Aber es kam ganz anders...das Buch war schon allein viel größer, als ich angenommen hatte, aber auch der Inhalt hat mich sofort gefesselt. Die ganze Zusammenstellung des Buchs find ich schon einzigartig - Interviews, interessante Fragestellungen, bisher unveröffentlichte Bilder (nicht nur von Mary-Kate & Ashley selbst, sondern auch von Kleidung, Schmuck, Bildern bis hin zu Möbelstücken und ganzen Räumen), Kommentare und Kunst. Nachdem ich das Buch mal kurz anlesen und durchblättern wollte, waren zum Schluss eineinhalb Stunden vergangen, ohne dass ich es überhaupt bemerkt hätte. Ich finde "Influence" definitiv unerwartet kurzweilig. Und was für mich ganz deutlich geworden ist: Mary-Kate und Ashley Olsen sind endgültig aus ihrer Rolle als süßes Zwillingspaar herausgewachsen und tun jetzt genau das, was sie wirklich beschäftigt und ausmacht. Obwohl ich das Buch auch Nicht-Mary-Kate&Ashley-Fans empfehlen würde, denk ich doch, dass es hauptsächlich für diejenigen interessant sein dürfte, die sich schon das eine oder andere Mal mit ihnen auseinandegesetzt haben, deshalb vergeb ich auch nur vier Sterne. Alles in allem aber definitiv ein sehr empfehlenswertes Buch, mit interessanten Aspekten und Ansichten, dessen Anschaffung sich absolut lohnt!

the ascent of money: a financial history of the world

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The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World (2008-10-30)
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Neu: ab EUR 17,89(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 22,95

Autor/Autoren: Niall Ferguson
Herausgeber: Penguin
Gebundene Ausgabe

Stichworte: [Economic history] [Social & cultural history] [Social history] [Banknote ( Geld )] [Englische Bücher] [Geld] [Geld - Banknote] [Monetär] [Valuta] [Wirtschaft, Business] [Wirtschaftsgeschichte] [Währung] [Allgemeines, Lexika, Geschichte] [Wirtschaft] [Business & Economics / Economic History] [HISTORY / Social History] [Finanzwirtschaft] [Weltgeschichte] [Economics: Professional & General]

cityboy: beer and loathing in the square mile

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Cityboy: Beer and Loathing in the Square Mile (2008-06-26)
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Neu: ab EUR 13,10(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 9,49

Autor/Autoren: Geraint Anderson
Herausgeber: Headline
Taschenbuch

Stichworte: [Banking] [Biography: general] [Arbeit, Wirtschaft, Technik] [Banks & Banking] [Biografie, Erinnerung] [Börse - Börsenhandel] [Börsenhandel ( Börse )] [Englische Bücher] [Erinnerung] [General] [London, Greater London] [Allgemeines, Lexika, Geschichte] [Wirtschaft] [BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Banks & Banking] [Biography & Autobiography / General] [Bank] [Englisch; Biografien/Erinnerungen] [London; Wirtschaft] [Autobiography] [Autobiography: General]

Kundenmeinungen:
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Unbedingt lesen, wenn Sie Wirtschaftsfragen interessieren!
Das Buch ist zunächst in Englisch geschrieben und das Buch lässt sich auch nicht so leicht lesen, weil viele englische Slangbegriffe bzw. Redewendungen verwendet werden, die man auch nicht alle im Wörterbuch nachschlagen kann bzw. muß man selbst sinngemäß übersetzen. Ich würde das Buch nur denjenigen empfehlen, die wirklich auf Konversationsniveau Englisch sprechen, sonst ist es zu mühsam. Zum Buch selbst: der Autor beschreibt seine Metamorphose vom linken Hippie, der aus einem Lehrerhaushalt kommt, Geschichte studiert und dann per Zufall in die Investmentbankingszene gerät, zum machtbesessenen, geldgeilem Ekel. Er beschreibt, wie ihn das viele Geld komplett zum negativen verändert hat und er selbst dabei nicht glücklicher wurde, sondern im Gegenteil- sein Leben fast zerstört hätte durch Kokainabhängigkeit und ähnliches. Er war also nie der überehrgeizige workoholic, der er dann später geworden ist. Er ist nach und nach in die Szene hineingerutscht und gibt viel Insiderwissen preis, was unsere hochbezahlten Investmentbanker den ganzen Tag tun und wie das Geschäft eigentlich funktioniert. Ich hatte schon einige Vorkenntnisse, weil ich selbst in der Bankenbranche gearbeitet habe, aber es ist auch für Laien gut zu verstehen. Vor allem betont er den menschlichen Aspekt dabei, dass man sich selbst als toll und den anderen haushoch überlegen fühlt und irgendwann tatsächlich glaubt, das viele Geld stehe einem zu. Man verliert durch den harten Wettbewerb den Blick für die Nöte der anderen Menschen und sieht nur noch sich und den nächsten Bonus. Er kritisiert die Finanzbranche sehr hart, denn er fragt sich ernsthaft, warum Leute so gut bezahlt werden, die ein bisschen überzeugend am Telefon reden können, ein paar excel-sheets ausfüllen und vielleicht ihre Kunden noch gut zum Essen ausführen können. Es ist keine höhere Magie dabei, auch die Notwendigkeit des FAchwissens hält sich in Grenzen. Es wird einem völlig klar, dass jeder Arzt, Ingenieur und Rechtsanwalt im Vergleich zum Investmentbanker völlig unterbezahlt ist und die Bezahlung keinesfalls zu rechtfertigen ist. Die ganze Bankenbranche muss stark reguliert werden und die echten Talente sollten wieder Berufe ergreifen, in denen ein echter Mehrwert an Waren und Dienstleistungen geschaffen wird und nicht blosse Zahlen hin- und herschieben, wie es jetzt passiert. Das Ganze ist sehr humorvoll und toll aus der Ich-Perspektive geschrieben und sehr unterhaltsam und gibt viel Aufschluss darüber, was bei uns in der Wirtschaft falsch läuft und nachher den Steuerzahler belastet!!!

made to stick: why some ideas survive and others die

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Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die (2007-01-02)
Weitere Informationen hier (Bestellen!)
Neu: ab EUR 12,53(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 16,68

Autor/Autoren: Chip Heath, Dan Heath
Herausgeber: Random House
Gebundene Ausgabe

Stichworte: [Strategic Planning] [Business] [Economics] [Finance] [Communication In Business] [Business & Economics] [Business / Economics / Finance] [Business/Economics] [Management] [Wirtschaft] [General] [Contagion (Social psychology)] [Context effects (Psychology)] [Social Psychology]

Kundenmeinungen:
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): Wie man Ohrwürmer erzählt!
Made to Stick: Why some Ideas Survice and Others die! vermittelt Ihnen sehr praktisch und mit plastischen Beispielen, wie Sie ihre Ideen an Top-Entscheider erfolgreich verkaufen. Stellen Sie sich vor, das ihre Zuhöhrer nicht nur die Botschaft verstehen sondern auch noch danach handeln. Wäre das nicht toll! Und wäre es nicht noch viel besser, sie würde die Botschaft auch nicht vergessen sondern sie noch hunderten anderen erzählen. Das wäre richtig toll. Das Buch zeigt Ihnen, wie Ihre Ideen richtig im Kopf ihres Gegenübers hängen bleiben. Wie ein Ohrwurm. Sehr hilfreich, wenn Sie die Öffentlichkeit, Kunden und Partner für neue Produkte, Dienstleistungen und Projekte gewinnen wollen. Wenn Sie Business Stories erzählen wollen. Wenn Sie ihr Message wirkungsvoll vermitteln wollen.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): The Sticking Point for Busting the Communications Stall
This is the best book about communications I\'ve read since I discovered Stephen Denning\'s work on telling business stories. I highly recommend Made to Stick to all those who want to get their messages across in business more effectively. Imagine if people remembered what you had to say and acted on it. Wouldn\'t that be great? What if people not only remembered and acted, but told hundreds of others who also acted and told? Now you\'re really getting somewhere! Brothers Chip (an educational consultant and publisher) and Dan (a professor of organizational behavior at Stanford Business School) Heath combine to develop Malcolm Gladwell\'s point about "stickiness" in The Tipping Point. To help you understand what they have in mind, the book opens with the hoary urban tale of the man who ends up in a bathtub packed with ice missing his kidney after accepting a drink from a beautiful woman. That story, while untrue, has virtually universal awareness. Many other untrue stories do, too, especially those about what someone found in a fast food meal. The brothers Heath put memorable and quickly forgotten information side-by-side to make the case for six factors (in combination) making the difference between what\'s memorable and what isn\'t. The six factors are: 1. Simplicity (any idea over one is too many) 2. Unexpectedness (a surprise grabs our attention) 3. Concreteness (the more dimensions of details the more hooks our minds use to create a memory) 4. Credibility (even untrue stories don\'t stick unless there\'s a hint of truth, such as beware of what\'s too good to be true in the urban legend that opens the book) 5. Incite Emotions in Listeners (we remember emotional experiences much more than anything else; we care more about individuals than groups; and we care about things that reflect our identities) 6. Combine Messages in Stories (information is more memorable and meaningful in a story form . . . like the urban legend that opens the book) Before commenting on the book further, I have a confession to make. This book has special meaning for me. I was one of the first people to employ and popularize the term "Maximize Shareholder Value" by making that the title of my consulting firm\'s annual report (Mitchell and Company) over 25 years ago when we began our practice in stock-price improvement. That term has become almost ubiquitous in CEO and CFO suites, but hasn\'t gone very far beyond the discussions of corporate leaders, investment bankers and institutional investors and analysts. The authors use that term in the book as an example of a communication that hasn\'t stuck broadly. And they are right. Having watched that term over the years go into all kinds of unexpected places and be quoted by people who had no idea how to do it long ago convinced me of the wisdom of telling people what to do . . . not just what the objective is. The authors make this point beautifully in citing Southwest Airline\'s goal of being "THE low-fare airline." If something conflicts with being a good low-fare airline at Southwest, it\'s obvious to everybody not to do it. You\'ll probably find that some of the examples and lessons strike you right in the middle of the forehead, too. That\'s good. That\'s how we learn. I went back to a new manuscript I\'m writing now and wrote a whole new beginning to better reflect the lessons in Made to Stick. I\'ve also recommended the book already to about a dozen of my graduate business students. So clearly Made to Stick is sticking with me. If you find yourself skipping rapidly through the book, be sure to slow down and pay attention on pages 247-249 where the authors take common communications problems and recommend what to do about them (such as how to get people to pay attention to your message). That\'s the most valuable part of the book. It integrates the individual points very effectively and succinctly. I also liked the reference guide on pages 252-257 that outlines the book\'s contents. You won\'t need to take notes with this reference guide in place. So why should you pay attention? The authors demonstrate with an exercise that people who know and use these principles are more successful in communicating through advertisements than those who are talented in making advertisements but don\'t know these principles. Without more such experiments, it\'s hard to know how broad the principle is . . . but I\'m willing to assume that they have a point here. No book is perfect: How could this one have been even better? Unlike Stephen Denning\'s wonderful books on storytelling, this book is more about the principles than how to apply the principles. I hope the authors will come back with many how-to books and workbooks. I would also like to commend the book\'s cover designer for doing such a good job of simulating a piece of duct tape on the dust jacket. That feature adds to the stickiness of this book.
+++++ (ein Amazon Kunde): The Sticking Point for Busting the Communications Stall
This is the best book about communications I\'ve read since I discovered Stephen Denning\'s work on telling business stories. I highly recommend Made to Stick to all those who want to get their messages across in business more effectively. Imagine if people remembered what you had to say and acted on it. Wouldn\'t that be great? What if people not only remembered and acted, but told hundreds of others who also acted and told? Now you\'re really getting somewhere! Brothers Chip (an educational consultant and publisher) and Dan (a professor of organizational behavior at Stanford Business School) Heath combine to develop Malcolm Gladwell\'s point about "stickiness" in The Tipping Point. To help you understand what they have in mind, the book opens with the hoary urban tale of the man who ends up in a bathtub packed with ice missing his kidney after accepting a drink from a beautiful woman. That story, while untrue, has virtually universal awareness. Many other untrue stories do, too, especially those about what someone found in a fast food meal. The brothers Heath put memorable and quickly forgotten information side-by-side to make the case for six factors (in combination) making the difference between what\'s memorable and what isn\'t. The six factors are: 1. Simplicity (any idea over one is too many) 2. Unexpectedness (a surprise grabs our attention) 3. Concreteness (the more dimensions of details the more hooks our minds use to create a memory) 4. Credibility (even untrue stories don\'t stick unless there\'s a hint of truth, such as beware of what\'s too good to be true in the urban legend that opens the book) 5. Incite Emotions in Listeners (we remember emotional experiences much more than anything else; we care more about individuals than groups; and we care about things that reflect our identities) 6. Combine Messages in Stories (information is more memorable and meaningful in a story form . . . like the urban legend that opens the book) Before commenting on the book further, I have a confession to make. This book has special meaning for me. I was one of the first people to employ and popularize the term "Maximize Shareholder Value" by making that the title of my consulting firm\'s annual report (Mitchell and Company) over 25 years ago when we began our practice in stock-price improvement. That term has become almost ubiquitous in CEO and CFO suites, but hasn\'t gone very far beyond the discussions of corporate leaders, investment bankers and institutional investors and analysts. The authors use that term in the book as an example of a communication that hasn\'t stuck broadly. And they are right. Having watched that term over the years go into all kinds of unexpected places and be quoted by people who had no idea how to do it long ago convinced me of the wisdom of telling people what to do . . . not just what the objective is. The authors make this point beautifully in citing Southwest Airline\'s goal of being "THE low-fare airline." If something conflicts with being a good low-fare airline at Southwest, it\'s obvious to everybody not to do it. You\'ll probably find that some of the examples and lessons strike you right in the middle of the forehead, too. That\'s good. That\'s how we learn. I went back to a new manuscript I\'m writing now and wrote a whole new beginning to better reflect the lessons in Made to Stick. I\'ve also recommended the book already to about a dozen of my graduate business students. So clearly Made to Stick is sticking with me. If you find yourself skipping rapidly through the book, be sure to slow down and pay attention on pages 247-249 where the authors take common communications problems and recommend what to do about them (such as how to get people to pay attention to your message). That\'s the most valuable part of the book. It integrates the individual points very effectively and succinctly. I also liked the reference guide on pages 252-257 that outlines the book\'s contents. You won\'t need to take notes with this reference guide in place. So why should you pay attention? The authors demonstrate with an exercise that people who know and use these principles are more successful in communicating through advertisements than those who are talented in making advertisements but don\'t know these principles. Without more such experiments, it\'s hard to know how broad the principle is . . . but I\'m willing to assume that they have a point here. No book is perfect: How could this one have been even better? Unlike Stephen Denning\'s wonderful books on storytelling, this book is more about the principles than how to apply the principles. I hope the authors will come back with many how-to books and workbooks. I would also like to commend the book\'s cover designer for doing such a good job of simulating a piece of duct tape on the dust jacket. That feature adds to the stickiness of this book.

kaplan gmat 2009. premier program (kaplan gmat premier program (w/cd))

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Kaplan GMAT 2009. Premier Program (Kaplan GMAT Premier Program (w/CD)) (2008-06-03)
Weitere Informationen hier (Bestellen!)
Neu: ab EUR 26,55(lt. Amazon) · Gebraucht: ab EUR 26,00

Autor/Autoren: Staff of Kaplan Test Prep and Admissions
Herausgeber: Kaplan Publishing
Taschenbuch

Stichworte: [Business & Management] [Examinations & assessment] [Higher & further education] [Industrial or vocational training] [Study & learning skills] [GMAT (Graduate Management Admission Test)] [Business] [Englische Bücher] [Graduate Preparation - General] [Tests] [Wirtschaft, Business] [Business Education] [Graduate Departments And Schools] [Study Aids] [Study Guides] [Test Prep] [Management] [Wirtschaft] [Study Aids / GMAT (Graduate Management Admission Test)] [Management and Business Administration] [Business, Accounting & Vocational: Textbooks & Study Guides]